Threat Watch

Intelligence insights on AI-enabled cyber and influence operations

01

Tradecraft

Sophistication by quarter

Sophistication (S) = autonomy + adaptivity + dependence + stage coverage + capability weight, on an absolute scale. Each dot is one operation; boxes span the middle half of a quarter and whiskers its full range. Pick a layer to compare groups: dots move to their reporting dates, boxes drop away and each group gets its own line.

Layer
Lines

* Quarter still in progress.

Components of sophistication

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437 operations · no filter

AAutonomy

0123456

PAdaptivity

0123

GDependence

0123

VStage coverage

0123456+

CCapability weight

0+1+2+3+4+5+6+7+

Top 12 operations by sophistication

Click a card to expand it.

AI capabilities used in operations

Operations tagged with each capability, by year reported.

226
193
132
128
86
Artifact DevelopmentSocial EngineeringIntrusion, Evasion & PersistenceReconnaissanceAttack Orchestration
2023202420252026

Models involved

Model counts depend heavily on each provider's efforts to investigate and publish incidents, so this measures disclosure as much as usage.

179 of 437 operations name a model (41%)258 name none
ModelOperations by yearCountMedian STop decile S
Claude
65919.0
GPT
624.38.4
Gemini
4159
DeepSeek
3012.918.0
Kimi
712.218.0
Qwen
7811.5
Grok
69.115.3
Llama
5610.0
GLM
215.1n/a
Mistral
19.2n/a
2023202420252026

MITRE ATT&CK sequence

Tactics in kill-chain order. Click a tactic to list its operations.

Measure
435 of 437 operations carry at least one tactic tag (100%)2 untagged
  1. 01Reconnaissance111
  2. 02Resource Development266
  3. 03Initial Access192
  4. 04Execution75
  5. 05Persistence49
  6. 06Privilege Escalation25
  7. 07Stealth70
  8. 08Defense Impairment15
  9. 09Credential Access96
  10. 10Discovery55
  11. 11Lateral Movement28
  12. 12Collection52
  13. 13Command and Control33
  14. 14Exfiltration57
  15. 15Impact101
Fewermore recorded incidents
02

Attribution

Threat actor nations

249 of 437 operations carry an assessed origin (57%)188 unattributed

China

73operations

Median S

5.4

Top decile S

16.0

Actor type

Top actor: APT41

Profile

Russia

37operations

Median S

5.8

Top decile S

15.4

Actor type

Top actor: The Gentlemen

Profile

North Korea

34operations

Median S

4.4

Top decile S

7.8

Actor type

Top actor: BlueNoroff

Profile

Iran

22operations

Median S

3.4

Top decile S

8.9

Actor type

Top actor: APT42

Profile
03

Victims

Targeted sectors

296 of 437 operations carry a sector tag (68%)141 untagged
Median STop decile S
Individual
835.47.6
Financial services
696.615.7
Government
665.818.1
Software/Hardware
447.317.4
AI/ML supply chain
343.812.1
Healthcare
2512.218.7
Education
20717.8
Retail
2010.217.1
Defense/military
183.713.8
Energy
185.718.4
Transportation
17515.7
Critical Manufacturing
137.616.5
Media
118.413.6
Hospitality
1010.418.0
Telecom
105.415.7
Chemical
512.219.4
Water utilities
49n/a
Food/Agriculture
38.4n/a
2023202420252026

Targeted countries

269 of 437 operations name a targeted country (62%)168 name none
04

Impact

Realized harm

What the sources document actually happened to victims. One operation can carry several kinds of harm.

285 of 437 operations document realized harm (65%)152 none documented or not assessed

Financial loss by reporting date

Net money lost by victims, where the sources give a figure (46 of 94). Excludes attacker revenue and unpaid ransoms.

Net loss to victims, USD (log scale)

Sophistication Sunder 55 to 1010 to 1515+

5 more give only a range: 1 under $10k, 2 $10k to $1m, 2 $1m to $100m.

Operations are counted once each sub-incidents nested under a parent campaign are excluded. Corpus volume grows over time, so part of any upward movement reflects wider coverage rather than more activity. Sophistication is scored from each entry's description, impact and response fields.